Following the fallout from The Last of Us episode 2, the repercussions of the show’s events will immediately impact its Emmy chances. The iconic post-apocalyptic series was certainly seen as a frontrunner in several categories, including Outstanding Lead Actor for Pedro Pascal. Now that he might be off the board, The Last of Us and Emmy voters may need to reevaluate what’s going to happen in the weeks ahead.
Spoilers ahead for The Last of Us — “Through the Valley” — Season 2 Episode 2
What does Pedro Pascal do now?
After largely being seen as a potential winner for Outstanding Lead Actor, the entire race shifts drastically. First of all, it is still possible for Pascal to contend in this category, but it would take a lot of maneuvering from The Last of Us creative team. Not only would Pascal likely need to appear in a few more episodes, but he will also need the material to make him an attractive option for the voting body.
However, Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama is a crowded field. Fandom-centric shows have their fill, with Diego Luna for Andor, Adam Scott for Severance, Gary Oldman for Slow Horses, and Lee Jung-jae for Squid Game all running strong. Add in new shows from acclaimed actors like Noah Wyle for The Pitt, Sterling K. Brown for Paradise, and Jon Hamm for Your Friends & Neighbors, and suddenly Pascal appears to be in trouble.
Why Pascal Cannot Compete in Guest Actor for a Drama Series
This means that Pedro should be considered for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. In previous years, he would have been eligible for Guest Actor categories if he appeared in under 50% of the episodes of a season (so three episodes in the 7-episode Season 2 for The Last of Us). However, just this year, the Emmys changed the rules — if a performance has been nominated or won an Emmy in the Lead or Supporting categories, it is not eligible in Guest. Pedro picked up the Emmy nomination for Season 1 in Lead Actor, so he’s not eligible there.
What does a Supporting play look like for Pascal?
Of course, we know that Pedro has the goods in these two episodes, regardless. He could easily win for Episode 1 alone, given the intense pain Joel found himself in, as well as that excellent therapy session. With a lot of trailer footage not present on The Last of Us yet, he’s almost certainly appearing in at least one more, if not multiple more, episodes. With flashbacks as their friend, The Last of Us could give Pascal plenty of showy moments, especially with a story about Eugene’s often discussed death. We know Joe Pantoliano plays Eugene in the series, so keep an eye out for that to be a standalone episode in the weeks ahead.
However, Pascal now needs to compete against legitimate competition. There may not be a tougher category at the Emmys this year, with Severance, The White Lotus, The Pitt, and Slow Horses all putting up incredible nomination-worthy performances. Adding The Last of Us and Andor to the fold makes the field extremely crowded in the final weeks ahead.
The White Lotus already features fan-favorites Walton Goggins and Jason Isaacs on deck. Patrick Schwarzenegger also received a lot of attention, and if Sam Rockwell runs in Supporting instead of Guest Actor (where he appears to be eligible), then we could see at least one snub from The White Lotus. The Last of Us could still make Jeffrey Wright eligible, with Gabriel Luna also getting showcase moments across the first two episodes. Assuming that Young Mizuno does not get an active push of his own, that still leaves three potential The Last of Us nominees here.
Perhaps the biggest elephant in the room is Severance. Tramell Tillman took over the season, but John Turturro remains a heavy frontrunner to win. Zach Cherry is the fan-favorite who feels like he inexplicably misses, but at the same time, his performance is very different than everyone else we’re discussing. Passion could pull him through. Slow Horses also features the Jack Lowden and Jonathan Pryce duo, both of whom have already received Emmy nominations for their roles. This category is stacked, and we did not even discuss the possibility of Andor growing its nomination count, The Pitt finding space, or the potential sleeping giant, House of the Dragon.
Kaitlyn Dever is a threat to win Supporting Actress or Guest Actress
While there is still some skepticism over Dever’s credit as a Guest Actress on The Last of Us credits, two more episodes puts her over the 50% threshold. With five episodes left, it seems unlikely she’ll be completely removed from the show, but we will see how the writing team continues to develop Abby.
Regardless of category placement, its hard to imagine many actresses have a stronger tape than Dever. Her performance in “Through the Valley” astonishes, providing incredible pathos, anger, and violence. It’s scary to watch, and it stands in stark contrast to her competition from The White Lotus ladies.
Aimee Lou Wood, Parker Posey, and Carrie Coon have decidedly less to work with despite the memes popping up around their characters. Each actress is good, but the overall consensus of the season has been one of disappointment or low stakes. Memes are great, but they’re usually not enough to carry an Emmy win. Even Natasha Rothwell’s nomination seems to be in jeopardy. However, if The White Lotus can secure all four nominations for the women, the support might be too spread out to deliver any of them a win.
Allison Janney is popular with the Emmys, making her a likely nominee for a short stint on The Diplomat, but it is difficult to imagine a world where she wins for this role. Patricia Arquette might be the only Severance actress with a chance here. Even with an episode about her character, the tide seems against her. After all, that was widely considered the weakest episode of Season 2. While The Pitt could also find itself in the race, it’s not clear who (or how many) supporting actresses they can get nominated.
If Dever does not reach the 50% threshold, the Guest Actress trophy should be getting engraved as we speak. There are still plenty of performers to confirm qualify for the category, but most internal pressure will come from The Last of Us. Catherine O’Hare could find herself in only three episodes this season, as could Rutina Wesley. Janney qualifies here, but she seems likely to compete in Supporting. A sneaky one to predict is Tracey Ullman, whose two episodes on Black Doves were brilliant. The actress is a favorite of the Emmys, but it seems unlikely she’d overtake Dever if Dever is representing one of the biggest shows of the year.
Bella Ramsey gets more juice for the Lead Actress conversation.
Ramsey now takes center stage over the rest of The Last of Us, and their performance will drive the series to any success that it accomplishes. It’s a lot of pressure, but Ramsey has proven their skills and faces relatively light competition. While Ramsey personally identifies as non-binary, they competed in the Lead Actress category due to Ellie’s gender identification. That will likely continue barring an unforeseen change.
In the process, Ramsey now finds themselves in the driver’s seat. We know there will be incredible emotion pouring from Ellie in the episodes ahead. They were a threat to win the Emmy last time out, even with Sarah Snook representing the final season of Succession. Ramsey does have some juice as an overdue performer, even against the likes of Keri Russell and Melanie Lynskey.
The big test will come down to Ramsey versus Kathy Bates. Matlock undeniably became a hit, and its clever twist on the original series has its fans. However, Bates might be the lone representative of her series, while Ramsey could be headlining a Best Drama Series contender with a dozen other nominations in her pocket. Upsets happen often at the Emmys, and if Ramsey gets the material we expect in the weeks ahead, The Last of Us should become the Bella Ramsey-show. That will go a long way towards landing an Emmy win for The Last of Us, especially in the relatively weak category in which Ramsey finds themselves.
Watch The Last of Us on HBO on Sunday nights at 9 PM EST. Episodes release on Max at the same time.
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